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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

CPI figures mean no more QE3?

The consumer price index in May grew at a 0.2 percent rate. The core CPI, that excludes energy and food prices, jumped 0.3 percent. Both measures were worse than analysts and expected. Year-on-year, inflation worsened to 3.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) from 3.1 percent in April. The core rate bumped up to 1.5 percent from 1.3 percent in April on a year-ago basis.

Although energy prices came down 1.0 percent, following a string of strong gains including 2.2 percent in April, food prices rose 0.4 percent, matching the boost in April.

There are signs that  inflation in agricultural products and energy may have been passed along to products. Apparel, shelter, new vehicles, and recreation all contributed to the acceleration in the core CPI, rising more in May than in April.

One of the two primary goals of the Federal Reserves is to maintain price stability and full employment. With the year-over-year core CPI so close to the Taylor rule of "2%", does it mean we can pretty much sweep QE3 underneath the rug?

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